{"id":3080,"date":"2024-09-18T00:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-18T03:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lucasmalaspina.com\/?p=3080"},"modified":"2026-10-12T16:23:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T19:23:15","slug":"natalia-aruguete-agenda-setting-social-media-polarization-milei","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lucasmalaspina.com\/en\/2024\/09\/18\/natalia-aruguete-agenda-setting-social-media-polarization-milei\/","title":{"rendered":"Natalia Aruguete: \u201cThe levels of self-censorship in the face of Milei are highly systematic\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The first time I saw her was in 2017, during a graduate program at\u00a0FLACSO<\/a>, and I was impressed by her knowledge and teaching style. Natalia Aruguete is a researcher at CONICET, holds a Ph.D. in Social Sciences from the National University of Quilmes\u2014where she also teaches\u2014and is a professor at Austral University. She contributes columns and articles to\u00a0P\u00e1gina 12<\/a>\u00a0and to\u00a0Le Monde Diplomatique<\/a>. She is one of Latin America\u2019s leading academic voices in the fields of political communication, agenda-setting, and social media.<\/p>\n\n

Her career began in journalism and evolved into a research career that includes books such as\u00a0Teor\u00edas de la Opini\u00f3n P\u00fablica<\/em>\u00a0(2012),\u00a0El poder de la agenda<\/em>\u00a0(2015),\u00a0Fake News, Trolls y otros Encantos<\/em>\u00a0(2020)\u2014co-authored with Ernesto Calvo\u2014and her most recent work,\u00a0Nosotros contra ellos<\/em>\u00a0(2023), also with Calvo, published by Siglo XXI Editores. Throughout this journey, Natalia has broadened her field of study from traditional media to the digital ecosystem, platforms, and the mechanisms that explain why people become active, polarized, or silent in public debate.<\/p>\n\n

The talk began with the most immediate present\u2014the Argentine political context, the spiral of silence, and the Milei administration\u2019s communication strategy\u2014and concluded with more fundamental questions: what it means to be a researcher with a political stance, how the media has changed, and what she is focusing on now.<\/p>\n\n

By Lucas Malaspina<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n

\"\"
Natalia Aruguete\u2019s latest book, co-authored with Ernesto Calvo<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n
\n\n

Cultural Change and Entrepreneurship<\/h2>\n\n

How are you feeling today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Right now, I feel good because the sun is out and it\u2019s starting to get warmer. But if we look at the bigger picture, I\u2019m swimming against the current, like many Argentines, trying to resist certain attacks that place us\u2014in the eyes of this government and a significant portion of the population\u2014among the political caste. I also think it\u2019s important to understand that, for many people, we\u2014the ones with stable jobs, the ones who have rights that they see as privileges\u2014are the political caste. So it\u2019s not just painful to see the government\u2019s attack on research, researchers, and university professors; it\u2019s also painful that, to some extent, this is applauded by a segment of the population.<\/p>\n\n

Why do you think that happens?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

I have the sense that there is clearly a cultural shift taking place. In part, this cultural shift has to do with a loss of faith in stability as a labor right, a loss of faith in regular pay, and in labor rights themselves\u2014as if it were acceptable to have to live with this instability and this constant sense of turmoil. I imagine that a large part of society, particularly the younger generations, envision entering the workforce from a very dynamic perspective\u2014if we want to use a euphemism with positive connotations. That dynamism works against stability, and it\u2019s also true that the new generations entering the workforce don\u2019t know what a year-end bonus is, what paid vacation is, or what the continued validity of collective bargaining agreements means. There\u2019s no awareness of these things, and I\u2019m not so sure they\u2019re even viewed as rights to be attained.<\/p>\n\n

There\u2019s a word that strikes me as key in what you\u2019re saying: entrepreneur. How do you see it?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

I have absolutely nothing against entrepreneurship. The problem arises when it\u2019s portrayed as something positive, when in reality, in many cases, it\u2019s the only way out in the face of job instability, the erosion of rights, and job losses without any compensation or recognition. And above all, there are issues related to social security and the ability to access a pension. These issues are bound to come to a head at some point. I remember that something like this happened back in 2002: half of the workers of retirement age were left without the possibility of accessing a pension. That was a total catastrophe. So, embracing entrepreneurship and striking out on one\u2019s own could also become, in the near future, a serious problem in terms of social sustainability.<\/p>\n\n

When you see that an individualistic narrative is increasingly taking hold among the population, do you see any countervailing factors or countertrends?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Every movement faces resistance and counter-movements. It seems to me that one of the issues that frightens many of us right now is that this individualistic, meritocratic, entrepreneurial mindset has become\u00a0mainstream<\/em>. And it has become\u00a0mainstream<\/em>\u00a0in part because those who championed this cultural agenda have moved from the margins: they are no longer on the fringes; now they hold power\u2014cultural power, in particular. It seems to me that this is much more firmly established than it was during Mauricio Macri\u2019s administration, when resistance was still a bit stronger and more persistent over time. What happened\u2014like two sides of the same coin\u2014is this: on the one hand, the mainstreaming of those who promoted this worldview. And on the other, the disillusionment of those who held a very different worldview. The enthusiastic ones take action, forge ahead, and dominate the scene. Those left disheartened lose their enthusiasm and stop participating. The winning half is enthusiastic and overrepresented in public discourse. The rest fall silent\u2014out of shame, out of sadness, because they can\u2019t find a way to channel their values, and because there is no leadership to represent them.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"
\u201cThe Spiral of Silence,\u201d a classic in public opinion studies<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

The Spiral of Silence and the Government\u2019s Communication Strategy<\/h2>\n\n

Could that have something to do with the spiral of silence?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

The spiral of silence posits that when one feels that one\u2019s agenda, framing, values, and discourse are in the minority, there is a greater propensity to remain silent. In the face of one\u2019s silence, those who are more vocal become more represented in that scenario. But I believe that right now the spiral of silence is being fueled by a discursive onslaught\u2014both digital and non-digital, political and social\u2014that comes from multiple dimensions: these are coordinated, systematic, and very clearly targeted attacks. All of this not only causes people to remain silent because they feel they are in the minority, but also makes them feel under attack and causes them to withdraw from the debate out of fear. The levels of self-censorship we\u2019re seeing among certain political leaders, a significant segment of the journalism community\u2014particularly female journalists\u2014a segment of the scientific community, and a segment of government employees are very persistent, very systematic, and very widespread. Ultimately, this type of attack controls the population by determining who is allowed to speak and, consequently, how the agenda is controlled.<\/p>\n\n

You\u2019re an expert on the topic of the agenda. What have you observed during these past few months of Javier Milei\u2019s administration?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

We\u2019ve come from previous periods and administrations where it was certainly difficult for governments to set their own agendas. During Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez\u2019s administration, the agenda was clearly in the hands of the opposition. This also happened during Macri\u2019s administration: there was an understanding of the digital ecosystem, but at critical junctures, the opposition took the lead. The Santiago Maldonado case, although it ultimately played out in line with the government\u2019s desired narrative, sparked 77 or 78 days of media chaos. The \u201ctwo-for-one\u201d measure was an absolute defeat, leading to one of the largest protests in the history of democracy. The massive utility-rate hike was crystal clear. And the abortion issue was, in terms of public communication, an absolute triumph, even though it was rejected by the Senate in 2018. Right now, there\u2019s a hyper-activation of the agenda by the ruling party and its digital actors. What we\u2019re seeing throughout this initial phase is an enormous ability to permanently set the agenda and ensure that everything revolves around discussing what Javier Milei\u2019s inner circle decides.<\/p>\n\n

Were there any issues where that didn\u2019t happen? I\u2019m thinking of higher education and retirees.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

I don\u2019t think that\u2019s exactly the case. When analyzing communicational and political events\u2014which, for me, are part of the same thing\u2014we must distinguish between critical events of recomposition, where something changes at the political level, and critical events of restoration, where everything goes back to square one. In neither case\u2014the university march nor the retirees\u2019 march\u2014did what was generated in discursive and political terms manage to change the course of public policy decisions. In the case of the universities, nothing was resolved in the slightest, starting with faculty salaries, which are below the poverty line. In the case of retirees, despite a substantial bloc having voted in favor of the pension increase, a large majority ultimately voted in favor of the veto. What I\u2019m seeing is that these communication battles remain at that level and are co-opted, absorbed, and channeled in favor of the government. And then nothing happens.<\/p>\n\n

And what about the issue of executive branch and congressional salaries?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

What happened is that they backtracked, but Milei capitalized on it very well, because it wasn\u2019t a single event. You have the salary increase for the Executive Branch and the salary increase in Congress. In the first case, they backtrack, and Milei emerges unscathed. In the second case, he is the one who says those salary increases are being reversed. So he comes across as honest, while the others reinforce their image as part of the political caste. To me, rhetorically speaking, he\u2019s capitalized on this very well. And there\u2019s something I find significant: there\u2019s a difference between Milei\u2019s image and the image of the policies the government is implementing. If you can get the president to differentiate himself and distance himself from the government\u2019s image, that\u2019s an effective communication strategy. I don\u2019t know how long this will last, because it\u2019s no longer just about the salary stability of public employees or CONICET researchers\u2014they\u2019re now affecting utility rates and public transportation fares. That affects everyone. It may have its limits. What does strike me, however, is that there is a decoupling taking place between Milei\u2019s agendas and the agendas that are beginning to emerge among his own voters. That decoupling could gradually become erosive for the government.<\/p>\n\n

Research, Political Stance, and Career<\/h2>\n\n

Do you consider yourself an activist researcher? Is neutrality necessary to conduct good research?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

It struck me as incongruous that you placed me in the category of \u201cactivist.\u201d I have absolutely nothing against being one. The thing is, it\u2019s a term that has been so debased that it can be dangerous and counterproductive to use it in those terms. I do believe, clearly, that no delineation of an object of study is innocuous. No researcher, no cultural being, is devoid of a stance toward life, toward events, toward political leadership, and of a historical background that leads one to adopt a particular stance. And it is from that standpoint that they choose their objects of study: they don\u2019t just fall from the sky. The objects of study that we Argentine researchers choose differ, to a certain extent, from those researchers in Spain or the United States might choose, despite the extensive exchanges and international collaborative projects. What I certainly do not believe is that a researcher, in order to be a good researcher, must be neutral. I do not believe that is a necessary condition for any cultural subject.<\/p>\n\n

How did you become the researcher you are today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

\"\"
Economist Daniel Aspiazu, who passed away in 2012<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

I came into research through journalism. I completed my undergraduate studies in 2001\u20132002, in the midst of the crisis. I submitted my thesis on December 17; on the 19th, everything exploded. I graduated in March 2002. I began doing a great deal of journalistic work. In early 2003, I interviewed Daniel Aspiazu for P\u00e1gina 12; at the time, he worked in FLACSO\u2019s economics department. He encouraged me to apply to CONICET. Since my background was in communication and he was an economist, I created a kind of convergence. I had recently met\u00a0Mart\u00edn Becerra<\/a> and had been dazzled by him. I applied to CONICET with Mart\u00edn as my supervisor and Daniel as co-supervisor, and that is where the path that has brought me to today began. I have been at CONICET for 20 years.<\/p>\n\n

I was born in the capital; I lived with my grandmother for a year while my parents built their house in Gregorio de Laferrere. My dad was a doctor in that neighborhood and was politically active. A group of friends set up a cultural center focused on educating people and helping the neighborhood: my father taught nursing classes, and my mother provided academic support. I spent my first 13 years in Laferrere, then moved to Ramos Mej\u00eda and attended Aldo Rico in Mor\u00f3n. When I started the CBC, I also began working as a student supervisor and later as a teacher at an adult high school in Laferrere. I\u2019d get home at 11 p.m. and wake up at a quarter to five. I was working at\u00a0FM La Tribu<\/a>\u00a0at the time, which is where I met my current partner 26 years ago. I taught in Laferrere for eight or nine years, until I joined CONICET and had to give up those teaching hours because the positions were incompatible.<\/p>\n\n

The Media, Platforms, and New Political Communication<\/h2>\n\n

From your first book to\u00a0Nosotros contra ellos<\/em>, how did you experience the transformations in communication?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Clearly, there is a profound, sweeping change that is here to stay. One of the factors most affected by this change is the media\u2019s former role as the central gatekeeper in setting the agenda. And one of my core convictions in this regard is that we must stop being naive enough to think that the media still sets the agenda today. On the contrary, I believe they are at a disadvantage when it comes to doing so. First, because they aren\u2019t read, they don\u2019t generate interest, and they aren\u2019t recognized as a source of information\u2014not even intentionally. They aren\u2019t recognized because the way we consume content causes us to lose sight of which source is providing that content. News consumption is marked by distraction and incidental exposure: whoever the source may be that provided the news that reached us in a fragmented way\u2014while we were doing something else, through algorithms\u2014all of that means we find out about something while standing in line at the supermarket and then don\u2019t even remember the full story, let alone who the source was.<\/p>\n\n

So, you\u2019re talking about, for example: I\u2019m in the bathroom and I see I got a DM on Instagram. Or I go to the grocery store and see a WhatsApp message with a link…<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Exactly. Plus, you\u2019re dividing your attention among multiple things at the same time, including a news story. What happens next is when someone asks you, \u201cWhat happened?\u201d and you don\u2019t know. I know it was something about Bah\u00eda Blanca, and you don\u2019t even know who the parties in conflict were\u2014I\u2019m not even asking you what the dispute was about. Recently, I participated in focus groups that were homogeneous in terms of vote choice. In the group with the strongest affinity for Mileism, there were enormous difficulties in piecing together the news stories. In the Massa-aligned group, there was a much greater ability to reconstruct the full news stories, identify the source, and even come up with conspiracy theories against hostile media outlets. This has to do with a markedly different level of interest in the news event. That\u2019s one of the main things I see: a decline in the media\u2019s ability to influence people.<\/p>\n\n

And how does that relate to the media\u2019s editorial decisions?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Media outlets decide what to cover based on metrics that tell them the level of engagement. And those metrics don\u2019t just reflect what\u2019s performing well in their own content; they also involve looking at what\u2019s performing well in other media outlets. If something is performing well elsewhere, the outlet will pick it up, even if it has already covered it before. There is a degree of subjugation both in terms of what to publish and how to write it. And they\u2019re also competing with platforms that constantly penalize them: once they figure out the Google News algorithm to optimize their ranking, the algorithms change. Once they figure out what visual style and what kinds of events to post on social media, the platforms penalize them and stop sending them traffic. Furthermore, they\u2019ve already lost that omnipresent and nearly unchallenged power they had several decades ago: what you see on a media outlet\u2019s front page is just the institutional brand. After that, the outlet is thinking about 18 agendas\u2014one for each social network and another for Google.<\/p>\n\n

Nosotros contra ellos<\/em>: From the Macro to the Micro<\/h2>\n\n

What are the main conclusions of\u00a0Nosotros contra ellos<\/em>? What does this book contribute that the previous one did not?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

In\u00a0Fake News, Trolls y otros Encantos<\/em>\u00a0we took a macro view, mapping out where the various participants in the conversation were located. Since we were able to analyze\u00a0big data<\/em>\u00a0at that time\u2014using data from Twitter\u2019s API\u2014we could see where the main authorities were positioned in the conversation and who was setting the agenda: the media, political figures, and activists. Now that access is no longer possible or is economically prohibitive.\u00a0Nosotros contra ellos<\/em>\u00a0offers a micro-level perspective on what motivates us to interact on social media. We work primarily with survey experiments: whereas before we viewed the conversation from a bird\u2019s-eye view, now we examine\u2014through the lenses of political psychology and social psychology\u2014how social media users react to controlled stimuli. This allows us to understand what we were mapping before: we saw the map, but we couldn\u2019t know why people did what they did. Today, we can begin to understand why someone engages with or ignores information, and why certain types of messages polarize people politically and emotionally.<\/p>\n\n

In other words, in\u00a0Fake News<\/em>\u00a0we could see how clusters or opposing communities form, and in\u00a0Nosotros contra ellos<\/em>\u00a0we can see what incentives users have to engage in those conversations.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Exactly. And what makes them share a message, respond to it, or ignore it. The problem is that now we cannot map that, and this is no minor point. Elon Musk\u2019s decision to prevent the conversation from being mapped is a macro-political and geopolitical decision, because this was a tool used in academia without any subsequent strategic political use. Conversation on Twitter fell by between 15 and 20% compared with previous years, and part of that decline was replaced by\u00a0cyborg<\/em>\u00a0accounts that coordinate systematically and artificially to generate conversation in highly sophisticated ways. Artificial intelligence not only allows you to identify what kinds of conversations are taking place in different regions of the network and intervene in them; it also allows you, to some extent, to circumvent fact-checking organizations. What we are now seeing is a high level of toxicity driven not necessarily by\u00a0fake news<\/em>\u00a0or blatant falsehoods, but by highly aggressive conversations. And how do you limit them, especially when the owner of the X platform believes in free-speech libertarianism\u2014an absolutely spurious and opportunistic use of that concept?<\/p>\n\n

Closing<\/h2>\n\n

To wrap up: What has been catching your attention lately? Where is your intellectual inquiry headed?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

It seems to me that one of the things that\u2019s really striking me right now has to do with the reaction of certain groups, certain organizations, and certain intellectuals to the levels of digital violence we\u2019re witnessing\u2014which has a massive gender component. A report was recently released by Argentine journalists on digital violence and cyberbullying\u2014issues of which many of them have been victims. An important report by\u00a0Amnesty International<\/a> is currently being finalized. There\u2019s also one from\u00a0Chequeado<\/a>. There is growing interest in this issue. I don\u2019t know if it\u2019s long overdue or if the rise of Javier Milei\u2019s government and the\u00a0cultural backlash<\/em>\u00a0surrounding advances in civil rights served as the catalyst. But I think it\u2019s something that\u2019s in the air, and hopefully we can make progress on it\u2014draw attention to it, raise its profile, and engage a significant portion of Argentine society both intellectually and emotionally.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The first time I saw her was in 2017, during a graduate program at\u00a0FLACSO, and I was impressed by her knowledge and teaching style. Natalia Aruguete is a researcher at CONICET, holds a Ph.D. in Social Sciences from the National University of Quilmes\u2014where she also teaches\u2014and is a professor at Austral University. She contributes columns 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The invitation to Tamara Tenenbaum stemmed from a tweet by Mart\u00edn Becerra, who singled her out as the most lucid political analyst of the moment. But Tamara is, first and foremost, a writer and columnist who has\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/lucasmalaspina.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Captura-de-pantalla-2026-04-12-a-las-21.13.47.png?fit=1102%2C778&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/lucasmalaspina.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Captura-de-pantalla-2026-04-12-a-las-21.13.47.png?fit=1102%2C778&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/lucasmalaspina.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Captura-de-pantalla-2026-04-12-a-las-21.13.47.png?fit=1102%2C778&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/lucasmalaspina.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Captura-de-pantalla-2026-04-12-a-las-21.13.47.png?fit=1102%2C778&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/lucasmalaspina.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Captura-de-pantalla-2026-04-12-a-las-21.13.47.png?fit=1102%2C778&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/lucasmalaspina.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Captura-de-pantalla-2026-04-13-a-las-0.37.16.png?fit=1474%2C958&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lucasmalaspina.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3080","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lucasmalaspina.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lucasmalaspina.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lucasmalaspina.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103004725"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lucasmalaspina.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3080"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lucasmalaspina.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3080\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3084,"href":"https:\/\/lucasmalaspina.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3080\/revisions\/3084"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lucasmalaspina.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3081"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lucasmalaspina.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3080"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lucasmalaspina.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3080"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lucasmalaspina.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3080"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}