{"id":3204,"date":"2025-10-29T01:46:42","date_gmt":"2025-10-29T04:46:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lucasmalaspina.com\/?p=3204"},"modified":"2026-10-12T16:22:20","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T19:22:20","slug":"2025-argentina-for-non-argentines","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lucasmalaspina.com\/en\/2025\/10\/29\/2025-argentina-for-non-argentines\/","title":{"rendered":"2025: Argentina for Non-Argentines"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

If you\u2019re not Argentine and, whether for professional reasons or personal interest, you\u2019re trying to understand what happened in the midterm parliamentary election on Sunday, October 26, this might help you.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n

If you have any comments, questions, or criticisms, they\u2019re welcome\u2014feel free to leave them below, and I\u2019ll almost certainly respond.<\/em><\/p>\n\n

    \n
  1. Some cranks go so far as to believe there was fraud<\/strong>, since, according to them, it\u2019s impossible for a 13-point lead to have been overturned in the Buenos Aires Province election. They are anti-Milei cranks now; when the results went against Milei, pro-Milei cranks appeared, arguing exactly the same thing. The Argentine electoral system is reliable: no serious person disputes it.<\/strong> Let\u2019s remember that in the 2023 presidential general election, Sergio Massa (a Peronist-Kirchnerist) came in first with 37% and was just 3 points away from governing Argentina\u2026 in a country with 143% year-over-year inflation. At that time, anti-Peronists claimed that Peronism had committed fraud. There was no fraud in 2023, there was no fraud this time, and there was no fraud in September.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n
      \n
    1. La Libertad Avanza does not hold the sum of public power: It is the ONLY truly national political party in Argentina. <\/strong>This is a credit to President Milei\u2019s personal brand: it is primarily because he has a personal brand with national impact that he has a party. This party was not created in accordance with the best practices offered by modern political strategy; it is far from it. But between 2023 and 2024, it was established in every province, and for now, that has been enough.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n
        \n
      1. Peronism-Kirchnerism (Fuerza Patria) is NOT a national political party today; it is a post-\u201cAlbertist\u201d electoral cooperative (that is, one that brings together the remnants of Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez\u2019s administration). <\/strong>This was known BEFORE yesterday\u2019s election and was made clear once again. Why? Because Peronism-Kirchnerism today fails\u2014whether under former President Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner or Governor Axel Kicillof\u2014to field relevant or competitive parties in every province, or even in every major province. In the country\u2019s second-most-important province, C\u00f3rdoba, Peronism-Kirchnerism dropped from 10% (in the 2021 parliamentary elections) to 5% this year. C\u00f3rdoba accounts for nearly 9% of the Argentine electorate: there, a completely autonomous provincial variant of Peronism (known as \u201ccordobesista\u201d) exists.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n
          \n
        1. Axel Kicillof\u2019s victory in the Province of Buenos Aires in September was primarily due to the self-inflicted damage caused by Javier Milei\u2019s administration. <\/strong>The 13-point margin in favor of his ticket occurred because a very large portion of the pro-Milei electorate was demoralized by the difficult economic situation and the alleged corruption scandals, which is why they did not turn out to vote (the case involving the National Disability Agency and the audio recordings regarding the infamous 3% commission for Milei\u2019s sister, which broke in August).\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n
            \n
          1. President Milei\u2019s victory speech was very astute: while obviously celebratory, it was measured and called on the provincial forces that will be represented in the National Congress to work together toward reforms aimed at \u201ccapitalist normalization.\u201d How this process is conducted is crucial. Should President Milei and his team believe they can continue without refining their political governance mechanisms, and should their electorate\u2019s economic conditions fail to improve, they will suffer even greater blows in public opinion than those they faced in 2024, as these will compound with the previous ones. <\/strong>La Libertad Avanza will not get away scot-free with its scandals: the corruption allegations regarding the National Disability Agency or the revelation that a drug trafficker had financed Jos\u00e9 Luis Espert, a Milei-backed candidate who had to withdraw his candidacy (an action that has had no electoral impact so far). All of this generates what we call \u201chidden damage.\u201d The current government has been systematically accumulating \u201chidden damage.\u201d It has already begun to pay the price in public opinion, as its image has plummeted. The most interesting thing is that all this damage has been self-inflicted. It hasn\u2019t paid the price as much in electoral terms (though it has paid a price, as we\u2019ll see later). This speaks as much to problems with political leadership within La Libertad Avanza as it does to the incompetence of the fragmented and lackluster opposition. <\/strong>Nor will Trump\u2019s support for the Argentine economy and politics come without a cost in terms of public opinion, as it does not sit well with the public\u2019s self-esteem.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n
              \n
            1. The quantitative polls did NOT fail; rather, a portion of the undecided voters swung toward La Libertad Avanza in the final week out of fear of the chaos that might ensue if La Libertad Avanza did not win. Many of them are Milei voters who have become disillusioned with his administration because they see a massive decline in their purchasing power. <\/strong>These undecided voters feared that Argentina would face an economic collapse on the Monday following the election and decided to support the government to preserve the country\u2019s precarious stability, which is sustained thanks to the help of Donald Trump and the U.S. Treasury. For most of the country, the situation is already very overwhelming: anything worse would have been maddening.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n
                \n
              1. In absolute terms, compared to the 2023 general election, Peronism-Kirchnerism went from 9,200,000 votes to 7,200,000: it lost 2,000,000 votes. <\/strong>In the 2017 and 2021 midterm elections, it had received 7,900,000 votes. In other words, between those parliamentary elections and these, Peronism lost 700,000 votes.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n
                  \n
                1. Milei was expected to absorb the Macrism movement (what remains of former President Mauricio Macri\u2019s political force): in the 2023 general election, the two groups combined (La Libertad Avanza on one side, Juntos por el Cambio on the other) totaled more than 13,000,000 votes. However, in last Sunday\u2019s general election, Milei\u2019s alliance with the Macri camp garnered just over 9,000,000 votes: the combined total of Milei and Macri resulted in 4,000,000 fewer votes. <\/strong>If I were a member of La Libertad Avanza\u2019s leadership team, I would take a closer look at this.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n
                    \n
                  1. In the 2023 general election, blank and invalid votes totaled 3,000,000. In last Sunday\u2019s election, they totaled 1,200,000. <\/strong>In other words, there were 1,800,000 fewer blank and invalid votes. Why did this number drop? The number of people who did not vote rose from 8,000,000 to 11,000,000 during the same period. <\/strong>Who are these people? How are they categorized? What do they think? It would be wise to understand them as well.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n
                      \n
                    1. From a communications standpoint, at this point, Javier Milei is no longer a new phenomenon: let\u2019s remember that he is a figure who emerged from something as old as television. He was aided by major influencers, but he created almost no original content for social media: contrary to popular belief, his use of TikTok was poor. The problem is that what stands in his way is too outdated: it doesn\u2019t entertain anyone. <\/strong>And without entertainment, there\u2019s no excitement\u2014and therefore no information either. It\u2019s 2025, a year marked by political upheavals where young people organize via Discord to topple governments. The 2027 election in Argentina will be a fruitful one for new political entrepreneurs\u2014if there are any.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n

                      <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                      If you\u2019re not Argentine and, whether for professional reasons or personal interest, you\u2019re trying to understand what happened in the midterm parliamentary election on Sunday, October 26, this might help you.\u00a0 If you have any comments, questions, or criticisms, they\u2019re welcome\u2014feel free to leave them below, and I\u2019ll almost certainly respond.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103004725,"featured_media":3206,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[121871],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3204","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\n2025: Argentina for Non-Argentines - 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